The test optional movement is an ever-changing landscape with colleges changing and updating policies all the time. As of this writing (March 2023), some colleges have announced an extension of test optional policies (for example, Harvard has extended its test-optional policy through the Class of 2030) whereas others now require SAT or ACT scores for admission (MIT, Georgetown, all the schools in the University of Florida system, etc.). In this article, we explore the future of test optional admission policies and consider the potential “death spiral” that may result from the continuation of these policies.
First, a disclaimer. We are not making any judgments here about the merits of requiring or not requiring SAT or ACT scores. That’s a complicated question and one could make compelling arguments on either side. This is more an exploration of the consequences of these policies and a prediction about what may result. The future may prove us wrong, so we are sticking our neck out here to make these predictions, but, hey, we’re not afraid to do that!
In another article, we discuss test optional policies more broadly and try to help students and parents decide whether it’s worth studying for and taking the SAT or ACT. In that article, we talk about one poorly understood fact that we will flesh out again here…
Since the onset of test optional admissions policies, the standard wisdom has been to submit an SAT or ACT score if your score is at or above the average for that school and not submit it if your score is below the school’s average. As we explained in that article, one consequence of this is that the average SAT or ACT score of admitted students at many colleges just keeps getting pushed higher. Consider the following: If a school’s average ACT score in a particular year is 30, most students who submit scores for the following admission cycle will have scores at or above 30. The average score may then rise to 32. The next year, most students who submit scores will be at 32 or above and so the average may then climb to 33. This is what we refer to as the “test optional death spiral.” If that trend continues, eventually you’ll reach a point such that the average ACT score of students admitted is 35 or 36 (36 is a perfect score on the ACT), and then no one will submit scores anymore!
The above seems almost impossible to avoid, especially at the more competitive colleges where the SAT and ACT scores of admitted students tend to be very high. What is the way out of this death spiral? There don’t seem to be many options.
If nothing happens, average scores will increase to the point that very few applicants submit scores, making the tests virtually meaningless for all but the very best test-takers.
An alternative is if schools could very clearly convey to students (and parents and guidance counselors, etc.) that students should submit scores even if they are a little below the average (because of the perverse logic of the death spiral and the fact that scores just below the previous year’s average would still be considered great scores), then that could limit the upward creep of average SAT and ACT scores at selective colleges. But it’s difficult to imagine that happening en masse. It’s sort of like the logic of vaccinations in a population: it only works if everyone does it, but you don’t want to be the only person doing it unless everyone else does it too!
The other possibility is that schools will realize how meaningless SAT and ACT scores will become as the death spiral progresses and will be forced to recant. It’s hard to imagine how that doesn’t happen in many or most schools. Again this is just a prediction and one that may prove to be incorrect, but to the extent that schools value SAT and ACT scores or even need them (as in the case of MIT, according to its Director of Admissions), there doesn’t seem to be any alternative.
Perhaps schools will come to believe that they don’t really need SAT or ACT scores from applicants, but most admissions officers seem to believe that they are valuable, if not vital. College officials don’t always say that publicly because it’s definitely more controversial to defend the use of standardized test scores and much easier to state that they are not valuable or needed. But the fact that there are enough schools still requiring scores at a time when doing so opens them up to criticism suggests that many colleges still view SAT and ACT scores as vital.
Time will be the ultimate judge, but the future will likely be one in which colleges either move back to requiring SAT or ACT scores or continue test optional policies to the point that scores ultimately become virtually meaningless.